您的当前位置:首页 > 私募资讯 > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-24 22:45:02 来源:网络整理 编辑:私募资讯
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
易钱包安全合法吗-易钱包安全么2025-05-24 22:57
请问广发diy信用卡积分有什么用,怎么用啊?2025-05-24 22:47
微粒贷可以循环借几次,什么是循环额度?2025-05-24 22:35
比特币波动性降至历史新低,黄金不再是避险首选2025-05-24 21:54
DeFi 项目 World Liberty Financial:获特朗普家族和加密人士站台,超 60% 治理代币面向公众发售2025-05-24 21:46
怎么关联证券通 怎么关联证券通信账户2025-05-24 21:45
Trump used Bitcoin to buy hamburgers in New York and named them Crypto Burger2025-05-24 21:16
想问问广发车主卡积分规则是什么啊?2025-05-24 21:12
Swap to the Future:OKX與Uniswap探索CeFi與DeFi的發展未來2025-05-24 21:02
小微企业所得税汇算清缴报表怎么选2025-05-24 20:46
pal货币最新行情2025-05-24 22:50
矿机币是什么东西 矿机币挣钱是不是假的2025-05-24 22:50
以太坊行情软件2025-05-24 22:47
冬季什么长什么短2025-05-24 22:27
挖rep币软件6-rep币怎么挖2025-05-24 21:42
火币ico2025-05-24 21:36
btc火币行情2025-05-24 21:11
21Shares 预测供应紧缩将推动比特币价格升至 13.8 万美元2025-05-24 20:44
比特币价格波动-比特币价格波动图2025-05-24 20:38
长沙矿工zec软件下载2025-05-24 20:36