您的当前位置:首页 > 白银TD > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-06-27 23:41:42 来源:网络整理 编辑:白银TD
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
新加坡首个代币化基金获批推出2025-06-28 00:01
未抵扣的进项税额作转出处理是什么意思2025-06-27 23:49
留存收益增长怎么算?2025-06-27 23:41
10月31日易米开鑫价值优选混合A净值下跌0.68%,近1个月累计下跌6.76%2025-06-27 22:48
怎么取消天气预报短信2025-06-27 22:39
全方位官网OKX欧义交易所电脑端下载与安装过程2025-06-27 22:22
10月31日东方红优势精选混合净值下跌1.02%,今年来累计下跌9.56%2025-06-27 22:11
天气什么什么出来了2025-06-27 21:45
火币网转账2025-06-27 21:44
莱特币什么时候出的 莱特币什么时候出来的2025-06-27 21:37
莱特币行情价格okcoin-莱特币行情价格今日2025-06-28 00:04
比特币面临50万BTC抛压:市场波动或将带来新机遇2025-06-27 23:39
股票中午撤单2025-06-27 23:38
想问问光大银行信用卡需不需要到营业网点激活啊?2025-06-27 23:29
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?2025-06-27 23:23
不良记录对公积金贷款有影响吗?我上次不小心逾期了,对公积金贷款有没有影响啊?2025-06-27 23:17
ChatGPT 分析瑞波币价格预测:XRP 达到 100 美元的可能性有多大?2025-06-27 22:54
yfii分叉时价格2025-06-27 22:46
股票当天买了-股票当天买了当天能卖吗2025-06-27 22:45
10月31日宏利改革动力混合C净值下跌0.49%,今年来累计下跌8.7%2025-06-27 21:42